The USA is still the biggest and fastest growing plug hybrid EV market, and forecast growth for plug in EVs is also going to be strong according to a Navigant Research report.
If they prove right, it would make the targets outlined in the recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report “GLOBAL EV OUTLOOK – Understanding the Electric Vehicle Landscape to 2020“, realistic.
According to the IEA; Global EV Sales have more than doubled globally between 2011 and 2012, and they set an aggregated goal for all countries with known deployment targets of 7.2 million in EV sales and 24 million in EV stock by 2020.
“Analysis of EVI data show that to reach the EVI goal of 5.9 million in annual sales of EVs in 2020, the 2011 EV market (approximately 45,000) would need to grow by 72% compounded each year until 2020″.
That is quite a target, but the IEA have provided some nice graphs and infographics with data-backed forecasts for each of the market developments that have to change to support it, including…
- An increase in Research and development as a result of greater funding
- A continued drop in the costs of batteries
- An increasing growth in charge point installations, in-particular the “slow-charge” types people install at homes and workplaces
- A greater choice of EVs
- Market trends and momentum
There are more and more EVs entering the market every day – EVs and hybrids dominated this weeks Frankfurt Motor Show. More consumer choice will lead to an increased uptake. Price is clearly coming down too.
The IEA report is well worth a look because it clearly summaries the challenges of the EV industry, but with enough detail to be useful commercially. The data behind it isn’t provided in the report, but it’s good to see independent research such as this report from Navigant that lends some support to the IEA targets…
“The market for plug-in electric vehicles is beginning to mature now that the most popular models, the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf, are available in all North American markets, and Ford, Mercedes Benz, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda, Fiat, and Tesla are all ramping up production of competitive vehicles…
…BMW and Volkswagen will soon add to the choices, and greater availability of charging infrastructure is supporting this growth. The majority of PEV sales will remain close to major cities on the east and west coasts.”
You can download the IEA report for free here: http://www.iea.org/topics/transport/electricvehiclesinitiative/EVI_GEO_2013_FullReport.pdf
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